The Nigerian Housing Market (NHM) 2026 Outlook (released early January 2026) projects nationwide residential property price growth of 5–15% this year, following a resilient 2025 performance despite high inflation, currency depreciation and elevated construction costs.
The report segments the upside as follows:
- Prime urban districts (Lagos Island, Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Maitama, Asokoro): 5–8% appreciation
- Middle-income areas (Surulere, Gwarinpa, Yaba, Kubwa): 8–12%
- Infrastructure-linked suburban & emerging corridors (Lekki-Epe, Ibeju-Lekki, Kuje-Gwagwalada, Mowe-Ofada, Sangotedo): 10–15% — the strongest expected growth band
This forecast comes after real estate contributed 5.43% to real GDP in Q1 2026 (NBS), surpassing oil & gas, and reflects continued urbanization, diaspora inflows (~$23B remittances in 2025), and major infrastructure delivery.
City-by-City Outlook & Growth Corridors (January 2026)
Lagos
- Prime zones (Ikoyi, VI, Banana Island): 5–8% price growth; current per sqm ₦2.8M–₦4.2M; rental yields 5–9% (short-let 8–12%)
- Growth corridors — Lekki-Epe extension, Ibeju-Lekki Free Zone, Sangotedo: 12–15% expected appreciation; current plot prices ₦15M–₦35M (600 sqm); rental yields 10–18%
- Middle-income (Yaba, Surulere, Ikeja): 8–12%; 2–3 bed flats ₦45M–₦120M; yields 12–16%
Abuja
- Prime zones (Maitama, Asokoro): 5–8%; houses/flats ₦350M–₦1.2B; yields 6–10%
- Growth corridors — Kuje–Gwagwalada stretch, Lugbe extension: 10–14%; 2–3 bed ₦25M–₦60M; yields 10–15%
- Middle-income (Gwarinpa, Kubwa): 8–11%; yields 9–14%
Secondary Cities
- Port Harcourt (GRA, Trans-Amadi): 7–12%; yields 10–16%
- Enugu (Independence Layout, New Haven): 8–13%; yields 12–18%
- Ibadan (Bodija, Samonda): 9–14%; yields 12–20%
- Owerri (New GRA, Works Layout): 8–13%; yields 11–17%
Projected Rental Yields (2026 Estimates)
| Segment / Location | Average Purchase Price Range | Monthly Rent Range (furnished) | Gross Yield | Net Yield (after 30% expenses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxury Lagos (Ikoyi/VI) | ₦260M–₦850M | ₦2.5M–₦6.5M/year | 5–9% | 3.5–6.3% |
| Luxury Abuja (Maitama) | ₦350M–₦1.2B | ₦3M–₦8M/year | 6–10% | 4.2–7% |
| Middle-Income Lagos (Yaba) | ₦45M–₦120M | ₦800k–₦2M/year | 12–16% | 8.4–11.2% |
| Affordable Lagos (Ikorodu/Epe) | ₦12M–₦45M | ₦400k–₦1.2M/year | 12–18% | 8.4–12.6% |
| Emerging Corridors (Kuje etc.) | ₦15M–₦60M | ₦500k–₦1.5M/year | 10–15% | 7–10.5% |
Investment Positioning Strategies for 2026
High Appreciation Play
- Focus on infrastructure corridors (Lekki-Epe, Ibeju-Lekki, Kuje-Gwagwalada, Mowe-Ofada)
- Strategy: Land banking or off-plan entry → hold 18–36 months
- Expected total return: 20–40% (capital gain dominant)
- Risk: Title verification critical; execution delays possible
High Cash-Flow Play
- Target middle-income & affordable zones (Yaba, Surulere, Gwarinpa, Kubwa)
- Strategy: Buy-to-rent or short-let clusters → leverage FMBN financing
- Expected total return: 15–30% (yield dominant)
- Risk: Tenant management; maintenance inflation
Balanced / Institutional Play
- 50% affordable/mid-market (cash flow)
- 30% luxury prime (appreciation)
- 20% commercial/logistics/data centres (stability)
- Blended target: 16–24% with reduced volatility
Financing Landscape (Q1 2026)
- FMBN Renewed Hope: 9.75% fixed (max ₦50M)
- Commercial banks: 20–23% post-MPR cut
- Developer instalments: 0–18% effective
- Diaspora dollar loans: 8–14% via platforms
- Crowdfunding/fractional: 15–22% target returns (₦500k entry)
Final Thoughts
The NHM 2026 Outlook’s 5–15% residential price growth forecast reflects a market that remains resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds.
Prime zones offer stability and prestige, middle-income areas deliver balanced returns, and infrastructure corridors provide the highest upside.
For investors, the winning approach in 2026 is diversification across segments and active use of financing tools to capture both yield and appreciation.
Which growth corridor or segment are you positioning in this year? Share your plan below!
Disclaimer: This information is for general purposes only and not legal advice. Consult a qualified real estate lawyer for guidance.
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